If M-Pesa Breaks, Kenya Stops. If M-Pesa Breaks, Tanzania Keeps Moving Like Nothing Happened.
Tanzania stands as a true competitive market. Every other market — Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Malawi, and the DRC — mobile money is dominated by one or two players, but why?.
Introduction
Led by Tanzania and Kenya, East Africa built the most successful mobile money ecosystem in the world. Mobile money here isn’t just popular — it’s essential. It powers trade, salaries, savings, remittances, and even government payments. No other region comes close, in line with GSMA’s 2025 report.
But we don’t talk enough about the dangerous truth at its core: Unfair competition. Monopolies. Duopolies. A digital economy run by only two players or worse, just one.
In Kenya, if M-Pesa breaks — and it has, multiple times — the whole country freezes. People can’t pay, can’t sell, can’t move, can't pay bills. The economy stops, literally.
If M-Pesa breaks, Kenya stops.
Tanzania, meanwhile, chose competition over concentration. It has four serious players — M-Pesa, Tigo Pesa, AirtelMoney, and HaloPesa — in a tight race for market share. And now, even SelcomPesa and AzamPesa are pushing the boundaries, out-innovating the incumbents.
If M-Pesa breaks in Tanzania, Life goes on.
This isn’t a fluke. It’s a feature of how Tanzania structured its mobile money market — and how Kenya didn’t.
From Convenience to Captivity
M-Pesa changed Kenya. It brought financial access to millions. It became the default way to move money. It was convenient.
But now, that convenience has turned into captivity.
M-Pesa controls over 90% of mobile money flows in Kenya. No other provider even comes close. People don’t use M-Pesa because they have a choice — they use it because they don’t.
It’s like M-Pesa is holding the entire country for ransom.
And it’s not just market dominance. It’s infrastructure dominance. From merchant payments to utility bills, school fees to taxes — everything runs on M-Pesa.
This lock-in is enabled by what pundits term as regulatory capture — when the rules, licenses, and systems are so tightly designed around one company, no real competitor can survive. It raises a tough question:
In a country with over 20 licensed banks, why are there only one or two mobile money options?
Is someone on the payroll? Maybe not directly. But when regulations always seem to benefit one player, it’s worth asking who’s being served — the public or the powerful?
The Stockholm Syndrome of Kenyan Mobile Money
When you talk to Kenyans, They will go like “Safaricom invested a lot for Mpesa to be successful, They’ve better signal, better connections even in rural areas” Unlike these other players.
How did we become okay with this?
People, not shareholders, defend M-Pesa like it’s a public service. Even when fees go up. Even when the system crashes. Even when the alternatives are locked out. They will go like Safaricom offer better services, connectivity, strong signal and they invested a-lot. Others should compete if they are serious about Kenya.
This is no longer convenience — it’s Stockholm Syndrome.
We’ve been with it so long, we can’t imagine life without it. We think it’s a blessing — even as it tightens its grip.
People don’t stay with M-Pesa because it’s the best — they stay because they don’t have a real choice. Every business, every app, every payment runs through M-Pesa. If it breaks, everything breaks.
And when there's no real competition, changes are made to benefit the company — not the customer.
Do we love M-Pesa? Or are we just afraid of what happens if we try to leave? Or we have never tried another serious mobile money service.
Tanzania: A Huge Market, Competitive by Design
Kenya is the mobile money poster child — but also its biggest cautionary tale. Now look at Tanzania.
Tanzania has four strong players — M-Pesa, Airtel Money, TigoPesa, and HaloPesa — sharing the market. Even newcomers like SelcomPesa and AzamPesa are pushing hard, challenging the big four with innovation and reach.
If M-Pesa breaks in Tanzania, life goes on like nothing happened
The economy breathes through multiple pipes, not one.
Kenya went for scale through monopoly. Tanzania scaled through competition. One is dominant. The other is resilient.
The Rest of East Africa: Mobile Money Cartels
Outside Tanzania, most East African countries are duopolies (I call them cartels)— two players dominate 90% or more of the market:
Uganda: MTN and Airtel
Rwanda: MTN and Airtel
Ethiopia: Telebirr and M-Pesa
Malawi: Airtel Money and TNM Mpamba
Mozambique: M-Pesa and Movitel
These aren’t truly competitive markets — they’re mobile money cartels. Two big players divide the pie and quietly agree not to rock the boat. There's little pressure to innovate or lower costs. Interoperability is limited. And consumers get stuck.
In some of these countries, there are over 20 licensed banks — but only 1 or 2 mobile money providers. Why?
Because the rules are written to protect incumbents. The gatekeepers of the network are also the gatekeepers of the market.
In a Market With 20+ Banks, Why Only Two Mobile Money Operators?
Ask yourself this:
In markets with 20, 25, even 30 licensed banks —
Why are there only two serious mobile money operators ?
This is not a technological constraint. It’s a political (policy) or commercial enclosure.
Banks must interoperate, compete, and share infrastructure (ATMs, Switches etc).
Mobile money operators don’t. They own the rails and decide who gets to ride and more important at what price. Think of Towers, SimCards, Agents as rails!
And when senior officials quietly slide from regulatory offices into executive roles at the very companies they once oversaw, what should we call that?
And when regulators start sounding more like corporate PR teams than watchdogs for the public, the system is no longer broken — it’s been captured.
From Financial Inclusion to Financial Exploitation
Mobile money was supposed to be about access and inclusion. But in most countries, it’s drifting toward control and capture then exploit. When one or two companies control the rails, customers are not just underserved — they’re trapped. Any fee increase, service outage, or policy change affects millions. And there’s nowhere to go.
What Needs to Change
Open the market — simplify licensing and allow non-telcos to compete.
Enforce real interoperability — users should be able to switch and use any service seamlessly.
Break infrastructure monopolies — no player should own the entire stack.
Regulate mobile money like utilities — because that’s what they are now.
The Bottom Line:
Kenya led the world in mobile money — but that leadership is now a liability. M-Pesa is no longer just a product. It’s a single point of national failure.
Tanzania, with its competitive ecosystem, shows a better way. It may not have started that way by design — but it’s working. It’s safer. It’s healthier. It’s more future-proof.
Because in the long run, no country should be held hostage by its most succesful company.
That’s the difference between convenience and captivity. That’s the difference between a monopoly and a market. That’s the future every country should be thinking about.
I really appreciate how Tanzania often seems to incorporate long-term thinking in its planning. It reminds me of wise elder, when I look upon the globe, and it is reassuring.